Long after a storm has dissipated, it can leave behind traces in the ocean that endure for thousands of years. These traces appear as layers of coarse sediment, distinctly different from the fine particles typically deposited during calm weather. In the Caribbean, an international team of researchers led by Goethe University Frankfurt has examined such sediment layers from a 30-meter-long core retrieved from a “blue hole” off the coast of Belize. Their findings reveal a steady increase in tropical storms and hurricanes in the region over the past 5,700 years. Looking ahead, the researchers forecast a significant rise in storm frequency throughout the 21st century due to climate change.
The study was conducted at Lighthouse Reef Atoll, about 80 kilometers off the coast of Belize. Here, the seafloor suddenly plunges into a deep, dark blue underwater cave known as the "Great Blue Hole." Measuring 125 meters deep and 300 meters across, this circular sinkhole was formed from a collapsed karst cave during the last ice age. As sea levels rose after the melting of ice sheets, the cave gradually filled with water.
In the summer of 2022, scientists led by Professor Eberhard Gischler, head of the Biosedimentology Research Group at Goethe University Frankfurt, deployed a floating drilling platform to the site. With support from the German Research Foundation, they extracted a sediment core representing approximately 20,000 years of deposition. The core was then analyzed by experts from the universities of Frankfurt, Cologne, Göttingen, Hamburg, and Bern.
The researchers found that coarse sediment layers within the core—known as tempestites—are evidence of past tropical storms. About 7,200 years ago, the area that is now Lighthouse Reef was submerged by rising seas. Since then, the Great Blue Hole has served as a natural archive of severe weather events. According to Dr. Dominik Schmitt, lead author of the study, the site’s unique environmental conditions—such as oxygen-deprived waters and stratified layers—allowed fine marine sediments to settle undisturbed. These sediments appear like tree rings in the core, with yearly bands alternating in color based on organic content. In contrast, storm waves and surges deposited coarser particles into the hole, forming distinct event layers with colors ranging from beige to white.
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In total, the team identified and dated 574 individual storm layers from the past 5,700 years. This record provides a much longer-term view of storm activity than what has been available through human observation and instrumental data, which span only the last 175 years.
Analysis of the sediment core revealed a consistent increase in storm frequency over the past six millennia. A major factor contributing to this trend is the gradual southward shift of the Intertropical Convergence Zone, which influences where tropical storms form and where they travel across the Atlantic and Caribbean. The researchers also linked periods of higher sea-surface temperatures with elevated storm activity, correlating these findings with known warm and cold climate phases.
Historically, the region saw between four and sixteen major storms per century. However, the nine storm layers recorded from just the past 20 years suggest that the area could experience up to 45 such events during the current century. This represents a dramatic departure from the natural variability seen in previous millennia.
According to Gischler and his colleagues, this surge cannot be explained by natural climate patterns alone. Instead, they point to human-driven climate change, which is warming the oceans and intensifying phenomena like La Niña. These changes are creating conditions more favorable for frequent and more intense storms, underscoring the urgent need for climate mitigation and adaptation efforts.
Nebitno
